Glossary
Plain-English definitions of every term the app uses.
FPL and model terms
- xP
- Expected points: the model’s forecast of how many FPL points a player scores next gameweek.
- EO
- Effective ownership: the share of the field (including captaincy) who own a player. High EO means owning them protects your rank; low means a differential.
- ΔP
- Projected price change: how close a player is to a price rise (↑) or fall (↓) tonight.
- RPS
- Ranked Probability Score: how well-calibrated the match forecasts are, lower is better. Around 0.21 is strong.
- bBPS/90
- Baseline BPS per 90: the bonus-points score a player banks from open play (tackles, recoveries, interceptions, passing, and simply appearing) before scoring or assisting. The BPS awarded for goals, assists, clean sheets and saves is stripped out. A high baseline means one return is often enough to land bonus; a low one means they need a goal and an assist.
- Captain 50
- The captain’s median outcome: the middle of 50/50 simulations of their gameweek.
- differential
- A low-owned player (under 15% owned). Owning one the field doesn’t is how you climb ranks fast.
- template
- The most-owned players: the “everyone has them” core. Owning the template protects rank; fading it is a gamble.
- threshold
- The net-transfer level at which FPL changes a player’s price.
- captain margin
- How many expected points the top captain pick beats the next-best by. A thin margin means a real choice.
- held-out backtest
- Testing the model on gameweeks it never saw while being fitted. The honest measure of accuracy.
- chip
- A one-off booster (Wildcard, Free Hit, Bench Boost, Triple Captain) you play once per half-season.